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Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30409/-1
CME Note: A faint CME with narrow brighter front with filamentary structures (likely the bulk) and a wider fainter but slower front (likely the shock). The source is the X1.6 class flare (N26E05) from AR 3663 peaking at 2024-05-03T02:22Z and an eruption with a faint narrow ejecta seen in AIA 193 directed mostly towards the NE and a faint dimming mostly NE of the active region and post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193. Arrival signature: gradual CME arrival signature (likely a flank impact/glancing blow) which on 2024-05-06 is followed by the onset of a high speed stream. There is no shock but a steady growth in magnetic field to 16nT on 2024-05-06, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components, with a prolonged bout of negative Bz (below 10 nT) on the evening of 2024-05-05. The ICME signature also includes an initial build up of ion density and temperature, followed by drops in both parameters.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T11:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.67
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 May 04 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3663 (N26W03,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.6/1b flare (R3/Strong) at 03/0222
UTC, with accompanying Type II (est. 959 km/s) and Type IV radio
emissions. The associated CME, first visible in LASCO imagery off the
NNE at 03/0248 UTC, is expected to arrive late on 05 May or early 06
May....

Solar Wind

.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS
influences are expected to prevail over 04-06 May. A stronger
disturbance is expected late on 05 May and 06 May due to the anticipated
arrival of the 03 May CME associated with the X1.6 flare detailed above.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled and active levels
on 04 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions
and periods of G1 (Minor) storming are expected on 05 May due to
continued positive polarity CH HSS influences in addition to the
anticipated arrival of the 03 May CME late in the day. Periods of G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) storming are expected on 06 May due to continued CME
activity and CH HSS influences.

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 May 04 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 04-May 06 2024

             May 04       May 05       May 06
00-03UT       3.67         3.67         4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       3.00         3.33         5.67 (G2)
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         5.67 (G2)
09-12UT       2.67         2.33         4.67 (G1)
12-15UT       1.67         2.00         3.67     
15-18UT       2.67         3.00         3.67     
18-21UT       3.67         4.00         2.67     
21-00UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    2.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 05 May followed
by G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) on 06 May due to the arrival of a CME from 03
May.

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Lead Time: 51.88 hour(s)
Difference: -6.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-05-03T07:37Z

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